Updated: August 26, 2014 - Detailed Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast:
Rewind: After a nice channel swell Sunday, waves dropped Monday only to pick back up out of the northeast through the day. The wind started cranking onshore and it was choppy and drifty.
THE LOWDOWN: Cristobal has become a hurricane. The strongest winds however are on the southern part of the storm, which isn't the part pointed at us. However, there is a large fetch of northeast winds from high pressure to the north and cristobal to the southeast. This is creating strong northeast winds locally, and a groundswell to fill in. Tuesday will be a mess, hard onshores with northeast groundswell building in. Strong south drift and blownout. Less wind the farther south you head but you're going to give up some size too.
By wednesday cristobal will pull farther away and the wind will settle down. Surf will clean up by the morning with just a light onshore wind. Seabreeze will pick up in the afternoon and make it choppy again.
Northeast groundswell will continue through Thursday before dying off.
Models in very good agreement now on the track.
TUESDAY26: NE wind/groundswell chest-head high. Wind cranking NE 15-25kts will blow it out and create a big south drift. Expect lots of paddling unless you can duck behind a pier or jetty. Tide high in the morning.
WEDNESDAY27: NE swell chest high or so. Cleaner but with a light onshore wind putting some texture on it in the morning. Then wind will pickup with the seabreeze in the afternoon making it choppy. There could be a chance for a land breeze to set up in the morning with light offshores. Tide high in morning around 9:45am, low 4pm.
THURSDAY28: Wind goes calm to light offshore in the morning. Swell drops to waist high with bigger sets, bigger upcoast and clean. Onshore seabreeze putting some texture on it in the afternoon. High tide10:30, Low 4:30pm
FRIDAY29: Still NE swell upcoast waist high plus, south florida looses the NE swell but may pick up a southeast swell from a little fetch developing over cuba pointing at south Florida. It looks like a good angle so it's possible. Southcounty southward may be better here. Knee high, maybe waist high if it hits just right.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND: Slight chance for a small SE windswell for the groms otherwise flat.
Long Range Surfcast:
Another tropical wave will be moving through the Bahamas by the end of the Labor Day weekend. This has the potential to develop so I'll keep an eye on it. It could be another wave maker for the first week of September. We'll have to see how it sets up. Too early to tell right now.
There could be more developing after this too. That's not a stretch to say though, since that's what usually happens this time of year.
Climatologically says we should get more active now anyway, so we have that on our side. With that increase in activity climatologically going through mid September. Right now the MJO is in phase 1 which is our area, and it's going to move back toward Africa by mid-late September which will keep the tropics hot until then. Which is right on with climatology.
The GFS model had been persistent in developing the next wave coming of Africa and blowing it up into a huge hurricane. it keeps it in the middle of the Atlantic which would send a swell to central Florida around the 10th. That's way too far in the future to hang anything on though.
Still waiting for el NINO to kick in. It's VERY close. I think that's going to happen officially by September, October at the latest and will be a weak to moderate el nino.
This, along with some other factors I feel are going to lead into a good winter for surf. I'll give a winter surf outlook soon but here's my preliminary forecast.
PRELIMINARY WINTER SURF OUTLOOK
November-December: Slow start to the winter with lots of windchop, not a lot of groundswell, and mild to warm temps.
January-February: Turning very cold,(maybe like 09-10) with many opportunities for solid groundswells and refraction swells galore. Hopefully you bought that toasty wetsuit because you'll be using it a lot.
It still is going to come down to the NAO being negative or not, but at least we are going to have other factors in our favor for a better swell season.
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