Rewind: Fun windchop lasted a while longer. Heard it was pretty rippable Friday and Saturday.
Synopsis: A cold front will move into the state Monday, then
down the peninsula on Tuesday. This one won't have enough punch to make a
clean pass, and will stall out right on top of us, or just to the south.
Exactly how far down the front goes will be tough to pinpoint, and it's pretty important because that will be the difference between blown-out surf, and somewhat clean surf. Latest model runs has the front stalling right over southern PBC which means north county will blown out, while central and south could be clean. This could change though, and even change hour by hour so you're going to just have to be vigilant Wednesday and keep checking the cams and obs.
IN THE TROPICS: Big gale center out in the Atlantic about even with Florida right now will strengthen and could become a subtropical storm early this week. This low will drift northward into our swell window and send a groundswell mid week (Jupiter northward) which will mix with the windswell we are going to get from the front Wednesday and Thursday.
The Low Down
Water Temps: Lake Worth: 76, Sebastian 71.
MONDAY: Knee high or less, Light SE wind 10 kts. Possibly longboardable Jupiter north at the lower tides.
TUESDAY: Maybe a little bump up in ENE swell from that big low out there. Thigh high and clean with offshores north county northward. Wind NW/NNE 5-15kts.
WEDNESDAY: Front stalls. North of the front wind NE 20-25kts and surf shoulder-occasional head high and blown out. South of the front light wind and clean chest-shoulder high. If it's blown out where you are, drive a little bit south and keep checking.
THURSDAY: Possibly light offshore wind in the morning for PBC (Onshore and blownout for the Treasure Coast) Could be pretty good with chest to shoulder high cleanish waves at the right spot.
FRIDAY: Wind finally fills in and blows everything out. Chest high or so windchop with underlying swell making for a bigger set every now and then. Wind NE 20kts.
LOOKING AHEAD, LONG RANGE FORECAST: Dropping surf for the weekend then looking ahead to Thanksgiving week, another front moves through Monday cranking up the NE winds once again, and the surf. That'll last a couple days then another fast moving system will move through around thanksgiving. Looks like there will still be some lingering but dropping swell Thanksgiving morning. Gotta keep an eye on that next system though, if it changes any, likes moves offshore more...it'll have the potential to bring something better for thanksgiving weekend. stay tuned!
Looking like the models are trending toward dropping the NAO negative as we go into December. Could be setting the stage for some good December groundswells! Stay Tuned!
Next update: WEDNESDAY maybe 11-20-13.
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