90% chance for tropical system to develop in the Gulf of Mexico

90% chance for tropical system to develop in the Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center has now given a 90 percent chance of development to an area in the Gulf of Mexico in the next five days.  The formation chance in the next 48 hours is at 70 percent.

A broad surface low centered just east of Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into Florida.

Little development is expected during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Computer models continue to lean toward a tropical depression, with hints of a weak Tropical Storm Alberto as a possibility.

The European model continues its trend of a track toward Louisiana and Mississippi moving inland late Sunday/early Monday.

The American model has now begun to shift west a bit, getting closer to the European model with a track toward the Big Bend part of Florida and moving inland early Sunday.

If the American Model plays out, we might have even more sunshine on Memorial Day but still with some chances for rain.

In both scenarios, South Florida will end up with a whole lot of rainfall (3-6 inches of rain) between Saturday and Monday.

At this point is looks like Saturday and a good chunk of Sunday will be pretty rainy, with maybe a few more breaks in the rain late Sunday and Monday.

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