Tropical development possible this week in the Gulf

Published: May. 30, 2022 at 6:16 AM EDT
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Hurricane season starts on Wednesday and it looks like we could be off to another quick start.

The National Hurricane Center is highlighting an area in the southern Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development.

While there is no chance of development in the next two days, the chance increases to a 40% within the next five days.

TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide

Agatha, this year's first named storm in the eastern Pacific, formed off Mexico's southern Pacific coast Sunday and rapidly gained power ahead of an expected strike along a stretch of tourist beaches and fishing towns as a major storm.

Because the storm's current path would carry it over the narrow waist of Mexico’s isthmus, the hurricane center said there was a chance the storm’s remnants could reemerge over the Gulf of Mexico.

A few long range forecast models predict the tropical moisture leftover from Agatha will move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and slowly re-organize late next week.

The EURO has it moving over Florida, which would mean higher rain chances and abundant rainfall, while the GFS places the system south of Florida, which would put us in the dry slot of the system, meaning lower rain chances and lower rainfall totals.

Adjustments will be made to the weekend forecast. For now, we will go with the chance for scattered showers and storms with highs in the upper 80s.

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